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Author Archive | Eamonn O'Connor


Sterling Confounds the Sceptics!

While I wouldn’t describe myself as a Sterling (Stg) sceptic, I have to confess that back in January my forecast for the beginning of Q2 2015 was that Stg would be trading around the .8000 level, a spectacularly poor call when compared to today’s .7150. Where did I go wrong? […]

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Sterling and Politics, a Volatile Mix!

Sterling and Politics; For decades Britain’s uneasy relationship with Europe has provided a backdrop for the pound that currency traders and economists have for the most part (aside from the UK’s brief dalliance within the ERM) been happy to ignore. Back in October when I last discussed Sterling (Stg) and […]

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The Best Laid Plans of Mice & Men

Back in the hazy days of summer, when certainty was the watchword of the FX markets and volatility had been consigned to the archives of the financial markets, the path for US & UK interest rates and by extension the path for the US dollar and Sterling seemed mapped out […]

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I Am Confused, Mr Carney!

And I suspect I am not the only one that has had their view on Stg whip sawed by the Bank of England’s ‘’guidance’’. Mr Carney’s tenure as head of the UK Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was supposed to herald a new era where the monetary authority provided the market […]

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Where Did It All Go Wrong?

Unlike George Best I am not talking about the fruits of a successful football career, rather I refer to my forecast for Stg at the start of Q2. As part of my ‘’ sackcloth and ashes’’ penance, I will remind you of what I said in my blog back then […]

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Where Will Stg Trade in Q1 2014?

I must confess I am getting a little worried, Readers will be aware that we have been calling for a stronger pound since mid 2013 and forecasting a test of .8000 by Q1 2014. So what has me worried? The fact that every scribbler and trader now agrees with me! […]

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Nervous Doves

Mr Carney and his colleagues on the Bank of England monetary policy committee will have been delighted with the pick up in UK economic activity over the summer months. They may however be forgiven for also welcoming the recent tempering of UK economic releases that have not quite met market […]

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Why doesn’t anybody believe me?

Mr Carney chose Nottingham, middle England, to make his first public speech since assuming the role of governor of the Bank of England. Nottingham at the heart of the country with it’s small & medium sized businesses represents the core of the British economy. His, was a message of reassurance […]

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What now for Sterling?

In my note last month I finished off by saying ‘’ Mark Carney may have to delve deeper into his unconventional toolkit to get significant Stg weakness (above .8800)’’. In the event he did just that and came up with ‘’Forward Guidance’’ (this is the communication by a central bank […]

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Central Banks Drive the FX Markets

Oh! to be a central banker. Well! There was I thinking that economic releases, trade flows, M&A flows, even good old speculative trades determine FX markets rates. Apparently for the moment we have to suspend such beliefs. Central Banks are having their day in the sun! It appears a well […]

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Ben Bernanke, the Party Spoiler!

It was an interesting and some would say eventful first half of the year. A number of asset classes have been shaken out of their ” carry ” (trade where an investor sells a low interest currency & buys a high yielding currency) induced torpor. Volatility that we thought had […]

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